Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.143238 1.205726 1.270476 1.342720 1.421240 1.504184 1.598669
2026-01-04 1.039294 1.126736 1.221174 1.331281 1.456812 1.596288 1.764125
2026-01-11 0.985965 1.089823 1.205342 1.344418 1.508745 1.698561 1.937138
2026-01-18 0.939779 1.054514 1.185111 1.346416 1.542639 1.776750 2.082150
2026-01-25 0.915076 1.040791 1.186911 1.371696 1.602698 1.886961 2.271521
2026-02-01 0.867761 0.996753 1.149001 1.344935 1.594963 1.910012 2.348517
2026-02-08 0.820609 0.950165 1.105003 1.307167 1.569601 1.906967 2.388140
2026-02-15 0.790379 0.922588 1.082613 1.294659 1.574842 1.942653 2.481055
2026-02-22 0.768911 0.904655 1.071023 1.294729 1.595620 1.999115 2.605812
2026-03-01 0.740575 0.876807 1.045442 1.274883 1.587974 2.015236 2.672200
2026-03-08 0.707793 0.842085 1.009609 1.239650 1.557153 1.996511 2.684368
2026-03-15 0.690463 0.826453 0.997738 1.235684 1.568858 2.038172 2.790261
2026-03-22 0.679221 0.818961 0.997039 1.247946 1.605563 2.120619 2.970797
2026-03-29 0.659589 0.799887 0.980339 1.237477 1.609256 2.154490 3.076826
2026-04-05 0.649776 0.793277 0.979850 1.249255 1.645434 2.239199 3.274115
2026-04-12 0.636982 0.782168 0.972708 1.251047 1.666536 2.301438 3.438540
2026-04-19 0.632405 0.781823 0.980083 1.273702 1.719911 2.417958 3.710758
2026-04-26 0.612060 0.759444 0.956176 1.249719 1.700229 2.414268 3.761968
2026-05-03 0.589415 0.733336 0.926297 1.215830 1.663480 2.380025 3.752143
2026-05-10 0.575422 0.718728 0.912096 1.204595 1.661720 2.404089 3.856412
2026-05-17 0.565815 0.709879 0.905694 1.204658 1.677728 2.459065 4.026824
2026-05-24 0.550981 0.693382 0.887910 1.186822 1.663915 2.461277 4.090239
2026-05-31 0.532431 0.671295 0.861576 1.155121 1.626162 2.419230 4.057827